A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
