Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
